England vs New Zealand Prediction & Match Preview – 1st Test, Lord’s

England begin their summer at Lord’s against New Zealand, largely unchanged in coaching and management despite a disappointing Ashes series. Their run to the T20 World Cup semi-finals appears to have helped secure that continuity. There is one fresh face in the XI: after a long spell of inconsistent form, Zak Crawley has lost his place, with Durham’s Emilio Gay, who previously played for Italy at associate level, set to replace him. Ben Stokes is expected to move down a place and Jamie Smith to move up.

Joe Root and Harry Brook are expected to carry the batting, while Josh Tongue and the returning Ollie Robinson are likely to share the new ball.

New Zealand travel to London after a convincing win over Ireland in Belfast, recovering from 21/2 with three of their top five out for fewer than four. Tom Latham’s side has been boosted by the return of Matt Henry, who should be supported by Zak Foulkes and Blair Tickner. Rachin Ravindra and Tom Blundell scored hundreds against Ireland, Devon Conway has a strong record in UK conditions and Kane Williamson has enjoyed success at Lord’s before.

Probable playing XI

Pitch report

Lord’s offers one of the most balanced Test surfaces, with something for both batters and bowlers. Seamers get the most help early, with swing, movement and bounce, especially under cloud with a new ball, and the famous slope adds variation that makes the first session tricky. The pitch usually settles on days two and three, before wear later in the game can bring spinners and reverse swing into play.

Weather

Typically mild, changeable conditions are forecast for the 11:00 am local start, at about 14–18°C. Cloud is more likely than sun, and a light to moderate breeze may make it feel cooler. A brief passing shower is possible, but no extreme conditions are expected.

Expected scores

• 1st innings: 320–380
• 2nd innings: 260–320