Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Prediction & Match Preview – 3rd T20I, Dambulla
Match summary
Sri Lanka and Pakistan meet in the third T20I at Dambulla on 11 January 2026. Our preview covers the key players, likely XIs, pitch and weather.
Match details
| Match | Sri Lanka vs Pakistan, 3rd T20I |
|---|---|
| Series | Pakistan tour of Sri Lanka 2026 |
| Date | 11 Jan 2026 |
| Start time | 1:30 pm GMT / 7:00 pm local |
| Venue | Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium, Dambulla |
| Status | Played |
| Our pick | Pakistan |
| Toss pick | Sri Lanka |
Matches in this series
Match preview
The series finale at Dambulla brings the two teams together again. Sri Lanka’s batting hopes rest on captain Charith Asalanka together with Kusal Mendis, Kamil Mishara, Dasun Shanaka and Dhananjaya de Silva, who are expected to shoulder most of the scoring.
With the ball, Sri Lanka will focus on Mahesh Theekshana, Dushmantha Chameera, Wanindu Hasaranga, Nuwan Thushara and Shanaka to strike at key moments and keep Pakistan in check.
Pakistan’s batting is built around openers Saim Ayub and Sahibzada Farhan, backed by captain Salman Agha, wicketkeeper Usman Khan and the experienced Fakhar Zaman, who will be asked to set a strong total. In the bowling department the spin trio of Shadab Khan, Abrar Ahmed and Mohammad Nawaz is central to their plans for breakthroughs, while Faheem Ashraf and Mohammad Wasim Jr lead the pace attack. A balanced unit like this gives Pakistan a slight edge.
Conditions in Dambulla tend to reward adaptability, with the pitch slowing as the evening wears on and the humid air possibly bringing dew into play. Whichever side adjusts faster to those changes, particularly in the middle overs, should control the finale of the series.
Dambulla generally provides a balanced pitch for batters and bowlers. It plays true early, letting batters settle and post competitive totals, while seamers can find some movement with the new ball if there is moisture. As the match goes on the surface slows and helps spinners, so the middle overs are important for teams relying on spin. T20s here often produce moderate to high totals of around 140–160, though a well-timed innings can push higher. Batting first can use the early conditions, while bowling first lets a side use spin later.
Warm and humid conditions are expected around the 7:00 pm local start, with temperatures of about 24–25°C and partly cloudy skies. Scattered showers are possible earlier in the day, but the chance of rain during the match looks low. Humidity could test fitness and bring dew into play later in the night.
Expected scores
| Innings | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| First innings | 150–175 | – |
| Second innings | 140–170 | – |
Pakistan
Pakistan have a settled batting order and a varied spin attack, which gives them a slight edge in the series finale.
Toss pick: Sri Lanka
FAQ
Who is expected to win the 3rd T20I between Sri Lanka and Pakistan?
Our preview leans towards Pakistan, thanks to their settled batting group and spin options.
Who are Pakistan’s key spinners?
Shadab Khan, Abrar Ahmed and Mohammad Nawaz make up the spin trio, with Faheem Ashraf and Mohammad Wasim Jr leading the pace.
Will dew play a part?
It might. The humid evening could bring dew later on, which may help the chasing side.
Probable XIs
Expected line-ups from our preview. c = captain, wk = wicketkeeper.
Sri Lanka
- Pathum Nissanka
- Kamil Mishara
- Kusal Mendiswk
- Dhananjaya de Silva
- Charith Asalankac
- Dasun Shanaka
- Janith Liyanage
- Wanindu Hasaranga
- Dushmantha Chameera
- Maheesh Theekshana
- Nuwan Thushara
Pakistan
- Sahibzada Farhan
- Saim Ayub
- Salman Aghac
- Fakhar Zaman
- Usman Khanwk
- Shadab Khan
- Mohammad Nawaz
- Faheem Ashraf
- Mohammad Wasim Jr
- Salman Mirza
- Abrar Ahmed
Head-to-head
Earlier meetings of Sri Lanka and Pakistan that we covered.