Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Stars Prediction & Match Preview – BBL Knockout
Match summary
Defending champions Hobart Hurricanes meet Melbourne Stars in the BBL 2025-26 Knockout at Bellerive Oval. Form, pitch, weather, XIs and expected scores.
Match details
| Match | Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Stars, Knockout |
|---|---|
| Series | Big Bash League 2025-26 |
| Date | 21 Jan 2026 |
| Start time | 08:15 am GMT / 07:15 pm local |
| Venue | Bellerive Oval, Hobart |
| Status | Played |
| Our pick | Hobart Hurricanes |
| Toss pick | Melbourne Stars |
Matches in this series
Match preview
Hobart Hurricanes and Melbourne Stars meet at Bellerive Oval in a Big Bash League 2025-26 knockout game. The Hurricanes began the defence of their title strongly, beating Sydney Thunder by four wickets and winning four of their first five matches. A mid-season dip then dropped them to third. They come in after a narrow three-run defeat to Brisbane Heat in which, chasing 161, they finished on 157 despite half-centuries from Beau Webster and Ben McDermott.
Melbourne Stars finished fourth with six wins and four losses from their 10 matches. They won their opening four games on the trot but have lost some of that early energy. Their latest result was a six-wicket loss to Perth Scorchers, when the batting was bowled out for 130. Marcus Stoinis made a determined 55 off 39 balls, yet the Scorchers reached the target in 16.5 overs and moved to the top of the table.
The Hurricanes’ likely XI mixes the power of Mitchell Owen, Nikhil Chaudhary and McDermott with an attack of Riley Meredith, Billy Stanlake, Chris Jordan and Rishad Hossain. The Stars would count on Stoinis, Glenn Maxwell and Hilton Cartwright with the bat, backed by Haris Rauf, Tom Curran and Mitchell Swepson. Powerplay discipline from both bowling groups is likely to shape the outcome.
Bellerive Oval tends to start with some seam and swing for the quicks, particularly in cool Tasmanian air, before flattening into a comfortable batting surface. Top-order batters need sensible shot selection early, and set players can then score more freely. Spin normally has a limited role because turn is modest, so accuracy and variations count for more. Competitive T20 totals are common, rewarding patience combined with smart acceleration.
Around 7:30 pm local time on 21 January, Hobart should be cool and comfortable at roughly 15–16°C under mostly cloudy skies. The chance of rain looks low, so interruptions are unlikely, and light to moderate winds are not expected to affect play.
Expected scores
| Innings | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| First innings | 160–175 | – |
| Second innings | 150–170 | – |
Hobart Hurricanes
Hobart are the defending champions, play at home and have a deep batting order, while the Stars lost momentum after a strong start.
Toss pick: Melbourne Stars
FAQ
Who is expected to win Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Stars?
Our preview picks Hobart Hurricanes, the defending champions, who are playing at Bellerive Oval.
How did Melbourne Stars finish the league stage?
They ended fourth with six wins and four losses from ten games, after winning their first four matches.
Is dew likely to matter in Hobart?
Light dew is expected in the second half, which could help the ball skid on and make gripping it harder for spinners.
Probable XIs
Expected line-ups from our preview. c = captain, wk = wicketkeeper.
Hobart Hurricanes
- Mitchell Owen
- Tim Ward
- Nikhil Chaudhary
- Matthew Wade
- Ben McDermott
- Macalister Wright
- Rehan Ahmed
- Chris Jordan
- Billy Stanlake
- Rishad Hossain
- Riley Meredith
Melbourne Stars
- Blake MacDonald
- Sam Harper
- Campbell Kellaway
- Thomas Fraser Rogers
- Marcus Stoinis
- Glenn Maxwell
- Hilton Cartwright
- Tom Curran
- Mitchell Swepson
- Haris Rauf
- Peter Siddle
Head-to-head
Earlier meetings of Hobart Hurricanes and Melbourne Stars that we covered.